The USDA NASS reports monthly on the current cold storage holdings of pecans being warehoused inside the United States. The latests report released shows overall pecans in cold storage, up by 6.06% when compared to the same time last year. The March 2019 cold storage report showed 306,279,000 lbs (converted to in-shell) of pecans in cold storage at the end of March 2019 while March 2018 showed 288,768,000 lbs in cold storage.
Q1 Q1 Q1 January February March 2010 215,855,000 226,390,000 218,177,000 2011 199,155,000 -7.74% 200,805,000 -11.30% 192,888,000 -11.59% 2012 188,712,000 -5.24% 216,994,000 8.06% 228,878,000 18.66% 2013 247,919,000 31.37% 304,012,000 40.10% 315,902,000 38.02% 2014 256,461,000 3.45% 300,343,000 -1.21% 293,837,000 -6.98% 2015 246,413,000 -3.92% 250,581,000 -16.57% 250,589,000 -14.72% 2016 243,277,000 -1.27% 282,076,000 12.57% 277,794,000 10.86% 2017 273,999,000 12.63% 297,771,000 5.56% 286,318,000 3.07% 2018 253,534,000 -7.47% 290,970,000 -2.28% 288,768,000 0.86% 2019 256,931,000 1.34% 289,829,000 -0.39% 306,279,000 6.06%
The increase is in line with projected growth for the pecan industry. When comparing 2018 and 2019 first quarter pecan cold storage holdings are up 2.37% from 2018 which was down 2.89% from 2017. This is still in line with the “on / off year” swings in production.
Another interesting change in the numbers is the quantity of shelled pecans in cold storage. The pecan industry has shown a steady and healthy increase in the quantity of shelled pecans in cold storage. The importance of this number is in my humble opinion, a very good indicator of demand for pecans due to the fact that shellers only shell pecans to make them ready to deliver to the customer, otherwise the pecans keep best in the shell. This is not to say that there is no speculation of purchase, but to see the shelled pecans cold storage numbers increase steadily like it has for the past 2 years is a very positive sign of growth in the pecan industry.
Q1 Q1 Q1 January February March 2010 30,904,000 31,960,000 33,913,000 2011 23,884,000 -22.72% 26,847,000 -16.00% 30,720,000 -9.42% 2012 33,209,000 39.04% 36,040,000 34.24% 42,627,000 38.76% 2013 42,840,000 29.00% 47,292,000 31.22% 49,654,000 16.48% 2014 46,212,000 7.87% 47,989,000 1.47% 48,497,000 -2.33% 2015 51,196,000 10.79% 53,138,000 10.73% 57,710,000 19.00% 2016 39,046,000 -23.73% 46,442,000 -12.60% 48,876,000 -15.31% 2017 39,401,000 0.91% 46,857,000 0.89% 51,368,000 5.10% 2018 45,662,000 15.89% 46,991,000 0.29% 51,950,000 1.13% 2019 58,036,000 27.10% 64,246,000 36.72% 65,270,000 25.64%
While the numbers are positive there is one sign of concern for the near future, and that is the in-shell pecan cold storage holdings. While the shelled pecans continue to increase, the in-shell numbers are lower than in previous year. This was partly expected due to the massive losses in Georgia from hurricane Michael at the beginning of the harvest in October.
Q1 Q1 Q1 January February March 2010 154,047,000 162,470,000 150,351,000 2011 151,387,000 -1.73% 147,111,000 -9.45% 131,448,000 -12.57% 2012 122,294,000 -19.22% 144,914,000 -1.49% 143,624,000 9.26% 2013 162,239,000 32.66% 209,428,000 44.52% 216,594,000 50.81% 2014 164,037,000 1.11% 204,365,000 -2.42% 196,843,000 -9.12% 2015 144,021,000 -12.20% 144,305,000 -29.39% 135,169,000 -31.33% 2016 165,185,000 14.70% 189,192,000 31.11% 180,042,000 33.20% 2017 195,197,000 18.17% 204,057,000 7.86% 183,582,000 1.97% 2018 162,210,000 -16.90% 196,988,000 -3.46% 184,869,000 0.70% 2019 140,859,000 -13.16% 161,337,000 -18.10% 175,739,000 -4.94%
