Farmgate pecan prices haven’t fallen this abruptly since the beginning of the trade war between China and the US. Starting of early season prices with a bang.
Pawnee contracts were filled at $2.50 while spot pricing pushed to the $2.65 range in the early market for export quality, but that ended quickly as local buyers for commercial shellers broke hearts and pricing expectation with lowball offers and large pullback in purchasing.
But with what seems to be a smaller crop in Mexico, and lower handler inventories coming into harvest, many growers are headed straight to cold storage with their crop to wait for the inevitable price rebound.
Deals are available right now on the spot market with high quality in-shell pecans selling in the $1.50 per pound range. But those deals are becoming more scarce as most growers in the southeast are simply waiting.
The in-shell price will typically rebound after the first initial sales when the majority of the crop is coming onto the market. Spot prices fall and the farmers not prepared to go to storage will contribute to some of the best deals available each year.
Pecan inventories have been trending lower last season even while demand was off from prior years. Moving forward demand is expected increase as marketing budgets for the APC and the APPB grow.
Pecan prices are definitely a BUY situation if you can find growers who need to sell in this market, but deals are getting harder to find as more growers are opting to wait for the price recovery.