Pecan producers in the US have taken it upon themselves to report monthly to the American Pecan Council their positions in the pecan industry, with data such as inventory, purchases and shipments. This was established by the pecan growers in the US to allow transparency in the industry and to help growers and buyers better understand the demand and consumption rates of pecans.
So far the industry has done a great job at reporting and auditing the numbers to allow pecan growers and buyers to see a much clearer picture of the current as well as past supply and demand of pecans. Each month the industry releases official reports of shipments, purchases, and a snapshot of inventory. This has been hugely helpful to the pecan industry allowing for more accurate information and industry position reports readily available each month.
The latest report was released at the end of last month and the data shows continued increase in consumption of pecans over last year. To date this season, pecan consumption has increased 7.8% over last year. This type of data is made possible only through the reporting of the American Pecan Council. The increase in consumption has been due solely from the increased demand in the US, export shipments are down 12.5% for the year, but domestic pecan shipments continue to pull the numbers into the black.
The industry also reports on pecan purchases, both domestic and foreign. One might think that with shipments continuing to increase throughout the year that pecan purchases would be higher as well. Actually the pecan purchases have dropped for the season. To date, domestic pecan purchases are down 7.9% and foreign pecan purchases are down 25.1% for a total overall reduction of 12.6% or (38,699,045) million pounds for the season.
With pecan shipments up 7.8% and pecan purchases down 12.6% you would assume that pecan inventory would have dropped as well; when a company ships more product than it purchases, that companies inventory usually drops. However, that is not the case, currently pecan inventory is showing an increase of 16.5%.
Pecan inventory was reported at 194,476,406 during July of 2019, August ended the season with shipments of just under 25 million pounds and purchases of 6.6 million pounds again reducing the inventory by 18 million pounds leaving inventory at 180,971,684. In September inventory showed 184, 629,945 since that time the industry should have had a reduction of roughly 28 million pounds with shipments of 336 million pounds and purchases of 308 million pounds. This should have left a reduced inventory, yet that is not the case. Inventory is currently showing an increase over last year of 17% or just over 32 million pounds.
The reports of course are subject to change without notice, however these are the latest reported numbers as of September 3, 2020. With the inventory showing an increase coming into the harvest season, pecan prices may be affected with industry assuming more inventory in storage than may actually be.