feature image

First Quarter Pecan Cold Storage Holdings Drop

Pecan stocks in the US have dropped from the last months record highs of 308+/- million pounds; in March 2013 the US was carrying pecan stocks of just under 316 +/- million pounds. April 2019 pecan stocks show 275,642,000 pounds of pecans in cold storage which is exactly the same as last year’s April figures. The number stack up a little differently this year with less in-shell pecans in cold storage and more shelled pecans in storage waiting to be delivered. This trend is very encouraging for the industry, showing a steady increase in demand. However this year may prove to be challenging for the pecan industry, with a shorter supply availability due to inclement weather and increasing demand. Some pecan suppliers are concerned that the cold storage stocks may not be enough to supply the market if demand continues at this pace.

 

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 220,140,667 170,951,000 109,545,000 84,441,000
2011 197,616,000 -10.23% 161,904,000 -5.29% 108,958,000 -0.54% 106,940,667 26.65%
2012 211,528,000 7.04% 201,025,333 24.16% 137,806,667 26.48% 141,345,000 32.17%
2013 289,277,667 36.76% 284,258,000 41.40% 197,455,667 43.28% 144,589,333 2.30%
2014 283,547,000 -1.98% 267,515,667 -5.89% 181,456,333 -8.10% 132,544,333 -8.33%
2015 249,194,333 -12.12% 207,995,000 -22.25% 138,071,667 -23.91% 124,743,333 -5.89%
2016 267,715,667 7.43% 228,456,000 9.84% 147,733,000 7.00% 149,347,667 19.72%
2017 286,029,333 6.84% 237,814,000 4.10% 171,040,000 15.78% 138,881,000 -7.01%
2018 277,757,333 -2.89% 256,881,000 8.02% 195,802,000 14.48% 162,033,667 16.67%
2019 285,008,333 2.61%

 

Overall for the first quarter, pecan cold storage holdings are up for an average of 2.61% when compared to (Q1) first quarter 2018. Industry growth is expected to pace at an average of 6% per year for the immediate future. While the last months cold storage was right in line with this figure the overall first quarter pecan cold storage holdings are at only 2.61% growth. Even more interesting is how the numbers are stacking up. The shelled pecan cold holdings have been growing at a much more aggressive pace with the (Q1) first quarter of 2019 up just shy of 30% from Q1 of 2018, and this is not an anomaly, this has been the case for almost 2 years (see chart below). The significance of this is that this means the demand is continuing to grow and purchaser optimism is strong. Pecans are only shelled when they are entering the supply chain headed toward consumption, otherwise the pecans store better in the shell.

 

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 32,259,000 32,922,333 29,347,000 20,362,333
2011 27,150,333 -15.84% 34,298,667 4.18% 32,138,000 9.51% 26,696,333 31.11%
2012 37,292,000 37.35% 47,156,333 37.49% 46,279,333 44.00% 36,231,333 35.72%
2013 46,595,333 24.95% 54,721,333 16.04% 50,747,667 9.66% 36,965,667 2.03%
2014 47,566,000 2.08% 53,854,333 -1.58% 52,726,667 3.90% 42,121,333 13.95%
2015 54,014,667 13.56% 57,020,000 5.88% 50,118,667 -4.95% 34,128,333 -18.98%
2016 44,788,000 -17.08% 51,975,667 -8.85% 45,647,667 -8.92% 36,276,333 6.29%
2017 45,875,333 2.43% 52,582,333 1.17% 55,112,000 20.73% 44,072,333 21.49%
2018 48,201,000 5.07% 60,228,333 14.54% 67,557,667 22.58% 53,939,333 22.39%
2019 62,517,333 29.70%

 

While this is good news for the pecan industry, the concerning numbers are the in-shell holdings. For the same period (Q1-2019) in-shell holdings dropped a little over 10%. This is largely due to the huge crop losses in Georgia from the hurricane that hit a few days before harvest. For now the numbers look very encouraging for the demand side of the pecan market, we will continue to monitor the US pecan holdings as the season progresses.

  • high speed industrial pecan cracker

 

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 155,622,667 105,106,333 50,851,000 43,716,333
2011 143,315,333 -7.91% 93,306,667 -11.23% 44,682,000 -12.13% 53,548,000 22.49%
2012 136,944,000 -4.45% 106,712,667 14.37% 45,248,000 1.27% 68,882,333 28.64%
2013 196,087,000 43.19% 174,815,333 63.82% 95,960,333 112.08% 70,658,000 2.58%
2014 188,415,000 -3.91% 159,807,000 -8.59% 76,003,000 -20.80% 48,301,667 -31.64%
2015 141,165,000 -25.08% 93,955,000 -41.21% 37,834,333 -50.22% 56,486,667 16.95%
2016 178,139,667 26.19% 124,504,667 32.52% 56,437,667 49.17% 76,795,000 35.95%
2017 194,278,667 9.06% 132,649,333 6.54% 60,816,000 7.76% 50,736,333 -33.93%
2018 181,355,667 -6.65% 136,424,333 2.85% 60,686,667 -0.21% 56,155,000 10.68%
2019 162,867,667 -10.19%

 

*C2i – Converted to in-shell