New tariffs taking place that may be favorable to American pecan growers. The Trump administration has been busy putting in place tariffs on goods coming into the US in an effort to bolster American manufacturing and the economy. As of March 6th tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect, for China it was an increase of tariffs. 

 

Out of these three countries the one that may help US pecan farmers is the tariffs on Mexican goods coming across into the US market. Last year importers brought in approximately 246 million pounds of pecans into the US nearly 69% of the total US production. 

 

US pecan growers produced around 357 million pounds in that same year bringing the total available US supply to around 600 million pounds. In that same time period US consumers only consumed around 300 million pounds. With a large portion of the pecan imports crossing the border during the US growers harvest time, on farm pecan prices plummet in the face of increased supply. 

The new tariffs imposed by the Trump Whitehouse may reduce some of these imports and encourage buyers to purchase more from US pecan growers. With the new tariff set at 25% a pound of pecans that may have cost $1.75 would now cost $2.19 adding $0.44 to the cost. 

 

This would likely serve to increase the price of US grown pecans as foreign imports would need to be priced at $1.40 per pound to be comparatively priced at an American pecan priced at $1.75.

 

Assuming the tariffs remain in place, it will be interesting to see the effects this has on the price of pecans to US producers, the price of pecans to Mexican producers, the quantity of pecan imports from Mexico to the US, and the change in US pecan exports. One suggestion is that US brokers/shellers may divert their Mexican pecan imports to serve export customers thereby reducing the US pecan export shipments.

*Data source: APC , APPB Year End Report 2023-24

**Carry Over data is assumed based on receipts and shipment data being true and accurate.